{
  "artifact": "mooncake_capacity_reconciliation",
  "sprint": "0.0",
  "claim": "One capacity table per slice, every cell re-derived independently, resolving the published 0.23465-vs-0.19645 contradiction.",
  "fixture_sha256": "97fc7a471e383d54",
  "block_tokens": 512,
  "train_frac": 0.6,
  "cap_fracs": [
    0.025,
    0.05,
    0.1,
    0.2
  ],
  "slices": {
    "full_trace": {
      "label": "all requests (belady_gap_cert's slice)",
      "n_requests": 2000,
      "wall": {
        "n_refs": 54559,
        "n_distinct": 38788,
        "compulsory_misses": 38788,
        "wall_hit_rate": 0.2890632159680346,
        "derivation": "(n_refs - n_distinct) / n_refs",
        "holds_for": "every demand policy at ANY capacity, including infinite",
        "does_not_hold_for": "prefetching policies -- a block fetched before its first reference converts a compulsory miss into a hit"
      },
      "capacities": [
        969,
        1939,
        3878,
        7757
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 969,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.02498,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.28906,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.17764,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 61.45,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.03952,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.04573,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.03856,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        },
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 1939,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.04999,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.28906,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.23465,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 81.17,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.04837,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.0577,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.04628,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        },
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 3878,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.09998,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.28906,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.28525,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 98.68,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.08653,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.09469,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.08035,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        },
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 7757,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.19998,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.28906,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.28906,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 100.0,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.17645,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.18156,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.1592,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        }
      ],
      "belady_crosscheck": {
        "prefix": 3000,
        "capacity": 969,
        "heap_hits": 97,
        "linear_hits": 97,
        "agree": true
      },
      "any_belady_exceeds_wall": false
    },
    "test_split": {
      "label": "held-out tail, TRAIN_FRAC=0.6 (entropy_ceiling_cert's slice)",
      "n_requests": 800,
      "wall": {
        "n_refs": 21069,
        "n_distinct": 16930,
        "compulsory_misses": 16930,
        "wall_hit_rate": 0.1964497603113579,
        "derivation": "(n_refs - n_distinct) / n_refs",
        "holds_for": "every demand policy at ANY capacity, including infinite",
        "does_not_hold_for": "prefetching policies -- a block fetched before its first reference converts a compulsory miss into a hit"
      },
      "capacities": [
        423,
        846,
        1693,
        3386
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 423,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.02499,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.19645,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.12687,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 64.58,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.04058,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.05634,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.03849,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        },
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 846,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.04997,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.19645,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.16,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 81.44,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.04352,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.05634,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.04243,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        },
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 1693,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.1,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.19645,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.19645,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 100.0,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.05496,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.06398,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.05026,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        },
        {
          "capacity_blocks": 3386,
          "capacity_frac_of_distinct": 0.2,
          "wall_hit_rate": 0.19645,
          "belady_hit_rate": 0.19645,
          "belady_pct_of_wall": 100.0,
          "lru_hit_rate": 0.07504,
          "lfu_hit_rate": 0.10186,
          "fifo_hit_rate": 0.07547,
          "prefetch_oracle_hit_rate": null,
          "belady_exceeds_wall": false
        }
      ],
      "belady_crosscheck": {
        "prefix": 3000,
        "capacity": 423,
        "heap_hits": 114,
        "linear_hits": 114,
        "agree": true
      },
      "any_belady_exceeds_wall": false
    }
  },
  "verdict": {
    "reconciles": true,
    "why": "The two certificates sweep DIFFERENT SLICES of the same fixture, each at the same capacity FRACTIONS (0.025/0.05/0.10/0.20) of its OWN distinct-block count. belady_gap sweeps all requests (distinct 38,788 -> wall 0.28906); entropy_ceiling sweeps the held-out 40% under TRAIN_FRAC=0.60 (distinct 16,930 -> wall 0.19645). Belady 0.23465 sits under ITS slice's wall of 0.28906. The published pair is not a contradiction; it is two slices quoted as if they were one."
  },
  "preregistered_threshold": {
    "belady_must_not_exceed_its_own_slice_wall": true
  },
  "does_not_prove": [
    "Does not re-run either estate generator. Their certificates are unchanged and unstamped; this is an independent re-derivation of the same quantities.",
    "The wall is a DEMAND bound. It says nothing about a prefetching policy -- that is Sprint 32, and the prefetch_oracle column is deliberately null.",
    "One fixture, 2,000 requests, 512-token blocks. Block granularity is inherited from the trace and not varied here.",
    "Belady is optimal for EQUAL-SIZE blocks. Variable-size objects would need a different optimum and this table would not apply."
  ],
  "cost_usd": 0.0,
  "generated_utc": "2026-08-27T02:16:03.916896+00:00",
  "git_rev": "unknown",
  "git_dirty": "unknown",
  "run_id": "cc475e3a9d3241e3",
  "host_kind": "Darwin-arm64",
  "provenance_schema": "gpu-cert-provenance/1"
}