{ "artifact": "s06_bailian_fleet_audit", "sprint": "S06-C2", "claim": "What a GPU-only cache captures of the reuse in Alibaba Bailian's four public Qwen traces, and what a host tier would add, at the capacity S46 ran; plus what replica scale-out costs and session affinity recovers.", "method": "tools/fleet_report.build_report and routing_loss over each file's salted SipHash block ids (16 tokens per block) at 65,536 tokens; session = root of the parent_chat_id chain; controls run first.", "prereg": "results/s06_bailian_fleet_audit.prereg.json", "capacity_tokens": 65536, "block_tokens": 16, "positive_control": { "trace": "mooncake_timed_600", "headroom_pp": 13.004, "expected": 13.0039, "ok": true }, "negative_control": { "file": "qwen_thinking_blksz_16", "fresh_ids": true, "reuse_fraction": 0.0, "report": "OK", "refused": true }, "per_file": { "qwen_traceA_blksz_16": { "report": "OK", "reuse_fraction": 0.597975, "n_requests": 43058, "n_sessions": 23101, "n_blocks": 6293976, "span_s": 7199.5, "max_turn": 37, "source_sha256": "07cedc9ed8aff301994ac68ed4aede8123b7603673575eeba9dd677de663db17", "reasons": null, "cold_miss_floor": 0.402025, "max_achievable_hit_rate": 0.597975, "gpu_only_lru_hit_rate": 0.152303, "offload_headroom_pp": 44.5672, "gpu_share_of_achievable": 0.254698, "working_set_over_capacity": 617.758, "n_block_refs": 6293976, "n_distinct_blocks": 2530337, "passes_s50_gate_12pp": true, "scale_out": { "single_replica": 0.152303, "round_robin_8": 0.090695, "session_affinity_8": 0.101443, "loss_pp_round_robin_8": 6.161, "recovery_pp_session_affinity_8": 1.075, "by_replicas": { "2": { "round_robin": 0.136809, "session_affinity": 0.144439, "tenant_affinity": 0.143807, "loss_pp_round_robin": 1.5494, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.763, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 0.6998 }, "4": { "round_robin": 0.119171, "session_affinity": 0.128427, "tenant_affinity": 0.128639, "loss_pp_round_robin": 3.3132, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.9256, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 0.9468 }, "8": { "round_robin": 0.090695, "session_affinity": 0.101443, "tenant_affinity": 0.1006, "loss_pp_round_robin": 6.1609, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 1.0748, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 0.9906 } } }, "fleet_report_exit": 0 }, "qwen_traceB_blksz_16": { "report": "OK", "reuse_fraction": 0.615273, "n_requests": 172800, "n_sessions": 172800, "n_blocks": 9956137, "span_s": 7200.0, "max_turn": 1, "source_sha256": "68e3f98e2d601d60d0abf4b89bc8a3654372abab7b1cde6373a13d0054379d59", "reasons": null, "cold_miss_floor": 0.384727, "max_achievable_hit_rate": 0.615273, "gpu_only_lru_hit_rate": 0.305622, "offload_headroom_pp": 30.9651, "gpu_share_of_achievable": 0.496726, "working_set_over_capacity": 935.154, "n_block_refs": 9956137, "n_distinct_blocks": 3830390, "passes_s50_gate_12pp": true, "scale_out": { "single_replica": 0.305622, "round_robin_8": 0.153802, "session_affinity_8": 0.154451, "loss_pp_round_robin_8": 15.182, "recovery_pp_session_affinity_8": 0.065, "by_replicas": { "2": { "round_robin": 0.242458, "session_affinity": 0.244069, "tenant_affinity": 0.247837, "loss_pp_round_robin": 6.3163, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.1611, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 0.5378 }, "4": { "round_robin": 0.193829, "session_affinity": 0.19556, "tenant_affinity": 0.202973, "loss_pp_round_robin": 11.1793, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.1731, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 0.9145 }, "8": { "round_robin": 0.153802, "session_affinity": 0.154451, "tenant_affinity": 0.163208, "loss_pp_round_robin": 15.1819, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.0649, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 0.9406 } } }, "fleet_report_exit": 0 }, "qwen_thinking_blksz_16": { "report": "OK", "reuse_fraction": 0.461842, "n_requests": 10812, "n_sessions": 9612, "n_blocks": 3223990, "span_s": 7191.7, "max_turn": 16, "source_sha256": "41ac36d9d1b54d084eeb6b05e9d142ba9d02f8bf79cfc9fff418d8ab7cdee906", "reasons": null, "cold_miss_floor": 0.538158, "max_achievable_hit_rate": 0.461842, "gpu_only_lru_hit_rate": 0.25042, "offload_headroom_pp": 21.1422, "gpu_share_of_achievable": 0.54222, "working_set_over_capacity": 423.588, "n_block_refs": 3223990, "n_distinct_blocks": 1735015, "passes_s50_gate_12pp": true, "scale_out": { "single_replica": 0.25042, "round_robin_8": 0.100471, "session_affinity_8": 0.119674, "loss_pp_round_robin_8": 14.995, "recovery_pp_session_affinity_8": 1.92, "by_replicas": { "2": { "round_robin": 0.205043, "session_affinity": 0.207173, "tenant_affinity": 0.191337, "loss_pp_round_robin": 4.5378, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.2131, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": -1.3705 }, "4": { "round_robin": 0.156526, "session_affinity": 0.154118, "tenant_affinity": 0.139512, "loss_pp_round_robin": 9.3895, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": -0.2408, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": -1.7014 }, "8": { "round_robin": 0.100471, "session_affinity": 0.119674, "tenant_affinity": 0.115362, "loss_pp_round_robin": 14.9949, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 1.9203, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": 1.489 } } }, "fleet_report_exit": 0 }, "qwen_coder_blksz_16": { "report": "OK", "reuse_fraction": 0.663723, "n_requests": 43011, "n_sessions": 26406, "n_blocks": 15470907, "span_s": 7198.9, "max_turn": 54, "source_sha256": "3d74974cebb7bccb69b1ca6ea210a44d9a3033443c0271ed015327284dea1aff", "reasons": null, "cold_miss_floor": 0.336277, "max_achievable_hit_rate": 0.663723, "gpu_only_lru_hit_rate": 0.147633, "offload_headroom_pp": 51.609, "gpu_share_of_achievable": 0.222432, "working_set_over_capacity": 1270.146, "n_block_refs": 15470907, "n_distinct_blocks": 5202517, "passes_s50_gate_12pp": true, "scale_out": { "single_replica": 0.147633, "round_robin_8": 0.025134, "session_affinity_8": 0.006353, "loss_pp_round_robin_8": 12.25, "recovery_pp_session_affinity_8": -1.878, "by_replicas": { "2": { "round_robin": 0.083684, "session_affinity": 0.085123, "tenant_affinity": 0.06654, "loss_pp_round_robin": 6.3949, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": 0.1439, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": -1.7144 }, "4": { "round_robin": 0.045276, "session_affinity": 0.041853, "tenant_affinity": 0.029119, "loss_pp_round_robin": 10.2357, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": -0.3423, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": -1.6157 }, "8": { "round_robin": 0.025134, "session_affinity": 0.006353, "tenant_affinity": 0.004378, "loss_pp_round_robin": 12.2499, "recovery_pp_session_affinity": -1.8781, "recovery_pp_tenant_affinity": -2.0756 } } }, "fleet_report_exit": 0 } }, "files_passing_gate": [ "qwen_traceA_blksz_16", "qwen_traceB_blksz_16", "qwen_thinking_blksz_16", "qwen_coder_blksz_16" ], "verdict": "BAILIAN, FOUR PUBLIC QWEN TRACES AT 65,536 TOKENS: qwen_traceA_blksz_16 floor 0.402025 / GPU-only LRU 0.152303 / ceiling 0.597975 / headroom 44.5672 pp / 8-replica round-robin loses 6.161 pp, session affinity recovers 1.075; qwen_traceB_blksz_16 floor 0.384727 / GPU-only LRU 0.305622 / ceiling 0.615273 / headroom 30.9651 pp / 8-replica round-robin loses 15.182 pp, session affinity recovers 0.065; qwen_thinking_blksz_16 floor 0.538158 / GPU-only LRU 0.25042 / ceiling 0.461842 / headroom 21.1422 pp / 8-replica round-robin loses 14.995 pp, session affinity recovers 1.92; qwen_coder_blksz_16 floor 0.336277 / GPU-only LRU 0.147633 / ceiling 0.663723 / headroom 51.609 pp / 8-replica round-robin loses 12.25 pp, session affinity recovers -1.878. Files clearing the S50 gate (>= 12 pp): ['qwen_traceA_blksz_16', 'qwen_traceB_blksz_16', 'qwen_thinking_blksz_16', 'qwen_coder_blksz_16']. Controls: positive OK, negative REFUSED.", "wall_s": 544.2, "cost_usd": 0.0, "does_not_prove": [ "Block hits, not GPU-hours: converting needs the bandwidth-bound fraction of GPU time, never measured here.", "LRU stands in for the engine's prefix tree; S46b corroborated the stand-in on Mooncake (0.0376 vs 0.0387), not on these traces.", "Sessions are reconstructed from parent_chat_id; the traces carry no tenant id, so tenant affinity is not measurable.", "Two hours per trace, December 2024, anonymised by the provider; the salting is theirs." ], "generated_utc": "2026-09-02T23:06:59.356290+00:00", "git_rev": "093ddaf", "git_dirty": true, "run_id": "295b3556aae94757", "host_kind": "Darwin-arm64", "provenance_schema": "gpu-cert-provenance/1" }